There are certain elemental truths that one must deal with constantly. One of the more frustrating is the phenomena where a notion becomes accepted in large part because other people accept it. Provided the idea sounds decent on the surface, people will often jump at the opportunity to agree with, even if some pretty basic scrutiny would tear the idea to shreds.

A perfect example of this concept of acceptance based on acceptance is the "The Magic can't go to Dwight late in games because of his FT%". The logic follows the basic train of thought that the team can't afford for other teams to foul Dwight and have him missing free throws. On the surface, that flow of logic makes sense.

And if you are one of the breed of people that would ascribe willingly to that notion, I have a word to describe you.

That word is "moron".

The problem with that logic is that it's not predicated on any analysis of any kind. From a statistical standpoint, that logic is laughable to a point that's almost silly.

If Dwight Howard is fouled and goes to the line to shoot free throws, given that he shoots 59.4% from the line, we can assume that in any given possession that this scenario occurs, Dwight will average 1.188 points. So if we assume Dwight is shooting 2 free throws and averaging 1.188 points per possession doing so, we can then assume that the Magic's Ortg(that's points per 100 possessions) in such a situation would be 118.8. If the Magic's Ortg was 118.8, the Magic would have the highest Ortg in the NBA.

By 5 points.

By comparison, the Magic's actual Ortg was a respectable 109.2, which is only 9 points lower.  But even that comparison of numbers doesn't tell the entire story.

Lets say for the sake of example that Dwight gets the ball late in the game and isn't fouled. He gets his shot off, where he promptly shoots his typical FG%. That means that there is a 57.2% chance that Dwight just scored 2 points, which equates to an average of 1.144 points per possession.

Since I'm sure trying to process what I just wrote would melt most readers' brains into fluid, I'm going to spell it out for you: The Magic are statistically more efficient on offense when Dwight is being fouled to deny shots than they are when he's actually getting his shot off.

And all this is based on the assumption that Dwight is being fouled in a hack-a-shaq manner, where he gets no opportunity to shoot the ball. If we assume that these fouls are coming in an effort to prevent Dwight's shot attempt, then the numbers get even more embarrassing. I can't find any data on the number of And1s that Dwight had this season, but if we assume that Dwight managed to make even 1 out of every 10 shots he was fouled on, then the formula for points per possession would look something like this.

Points per possession = .1(2+.594]) + .9(2 * .594) which would total 1.3514 points per possession. So if we assume that in the scenario where Dwight is fouled hard every time he shoots in the 4th and makes just 1 out of every 10 shots in that scenario, the Magic's Ortg would be almost 26 points higher in that scenario than it actually was for the season.

"But Steak, bro, what about our other options? Like Hedo or Shard?" I can hear you saying to yourself.

First, don't call me "bro". I already have to live in a world where Rashard took 110 more FGAs than Dwight this season. I've suffered enough.

Second, Hedo should be ruled out as a legitimate 4th quarter option immediately. He averages 5.3 points a game in the 4th quarter on percentages I'd have to be 5x more generous than I am before I'd dare call them "only bad". There is simply never an acceptable reason to go repeatedly to someone who shoots under 39% in the 4th(under 32% from 3). Christ, even his FT% drops in the 4th.

Rashard fairs a little bit better. He puts up 4.7ppg in the 4th on 47.7% and 41.4% from 3. That's nice, except that he simply doesn't draw FTAs, which is where the big, easy points are. 1.1ppg in the 4th just isn't enough.

So please, Orlando: give Dwight the ball. I promise, it'll work out well for you. I've proved it. Statistically. And for those of you who insist on making stupid arguments, think about what you're saying for a second. I mean, honestly: Dwight had an Ortg after Game 1 of 160. The next best in the playoffs so far? Ben Gordon at 137.

So lets just stop making that argument.

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